Peace in 2025: An Unlikely Scenario

Trump's Promises and Ground Realities

Despite the potential victory of Donald Trump in the upcoming election, it seems improbable that he will fulfill his promise to end the Ukraine war within 24 hours. This skepticism is based on logic and the current situation on the ground. For starters, Moscow plans to increase its military spending by 22.6% next year, a whopping 54% increase compared to the original budget for 2025, which was drafted at the end of 2023. This increase will result in defense spending accounting for over 8% of the GDP and a staggering 40% of all federal spending. This raises the question of whether this increased spending is in anticipation of the war ending next year. The Kremlin is likely to enter into negotiations only once it achieves its primary military-political goal: ensuring Ukraine does not join NATO. Currently, the situation around the special military operation does not seem conducive to negotiations.

The United States and the Conflict

Secondly, the end of the conflict does not seem to be in the best interest of the United States. Despite complaints from Trump and other Republicans about the Ukrainian issue, the Ukrainian war has been one of the most successful investments in US foreign policy in recent decades. The US has spent over a trillion dollars on Afghanistan in the last 20 years. However, the dividends from Ukraine far outweigh those from Afghanistan. The EU economy is crippled and heavily reliant on the US, Russian gas and oil are being removed from the European market, and Russia is spending massive resources on winning the war in the Ukrainian steppes.

China's Role

Thirdly, an early peace does not seem to be in China's best interest either. Beijing would prefer that by the time conflicts in the Asian region resume, the US would be preoccupied with other local conflicts. Moreover, peace in Ukraine under the current conditions would be a complete geopolitical triumph for the US. This would force many countries currently "sitting on the fence" or keeping their options open to accept the will of the White House, leaving Beijing with little room to maneuver.

The Western Dream

The West's dream in the Ukraine war is to either destroy Russia or make it a vassal state, similar to other European countries. The White House will do everything possible to force the Kremlin to abandon its alliance with Beijing, the US's main competitor. They dream of impoverishing Russia to the maximum extent, after which they will try to impose the "rules of the 1990s", a time when Moscow was a largely amorphous and non-independent actor. This strategic logic is unlikely to change with either Donald Trump or Kamala Harris, as it aligns with the interests of the deep state and the largest global financial institutions.

Bottom Line

The prospect of peace in 2025 seems unlikely given the current geopolitical circumstances and the interests of major global players. What are your thoughts on this situation? Do you think peace is a possibility, or will the conflict continue? Share your thoughts and this article with your friends. Remember to sign up for the Daily Briefing, which is delivered every day at 6pm.