Pondering a Potential Trump Victory

Current Momentum

As per the latest major national polls, Trump appears to be gaining momentum with a lead of 2 to 3%. Even outlets typically favoring Democrats, like the New York Times and CNN, are showing a tied race in their final surveys. Considering the close nature of the 2016 and 2020 elections, despite solid polling leads for Clinton (5%) and Biden (8%), it's important to consider the possibility of Trump not only winning the electoral college but also the popular vote.

Implications of a Trump Win

There are several implications to consider if Trump wins. For instance, JD Vance's rise could have significant implications for the Republican trajectory.

Questions arise about whether Trump would replace Fed chairman Jay Powell or push for a policy change. In a recent CNBC interview, former Fed governor Kevin Warsh suggested that the Fed has boosted both the stock market and inflation. If Trump fulfills his promise to reduce inflation, would that automatically lead to a stock market correction and economic slowdown? Not necessarily. If Trump can stimulate productive economic activity and Congress can end the fiscal blowout, the Fed could normalize monetary policy without causing a major economic slump.

There are also concerns about whether Trump would impose the broad and deep tariffs he proposed, or if he would mostly use them as a bargaining tool with China. Some Trump allies are floating the idea of replacing income taxes with tariffs. While this may seem impractical and unlikely, it's encouraging to see radical tax reform reenter the national conversation after a long absence.

Dealing with Immigration

How Trump would handle the deportation of illegal immigrants is another question. This could be a difficult process, with potential for conflict and criticism of the new administration. One suggestion is to offer a "reverse amnesty" – forgiving previous illegal entries and minor violations for those who leave peacefully and agree not to return illegally. This could encourage self-identification and peaceful departure, helping authorities track those leaving. Critics argue that migrant departures could impact the economy, but the effects may not be as significant as feared, given the substantial native populations still underemployed or absent from the workforce.

Regulatory Changes and Economic Considerations

With a Trump win, we could expect a significant rollback of regulatory intrusions across the economy – from energy to crypto. Coupled with recent Supreme Court action and the influence of Elon Musk, this could lead to a regulatory renaissance. Extending the 2017 tax cuts also becomes more likely.

Trump has never shown much concern about debt, deficits, or spending. However, he has appointed Elon Musk as government efficiency czar. This unconventional approach to spending reform could potentially return out-of-control spending to a pre-Covid path, or even achieve more revolutionary effects on government spending and reach.

Foreign Policy and Internal Challenges

There are also questions about how NATO and its transatlantic network would respond, and how Trump would deal with potential internal sabotage of his administration. If the election results are tight, would Democrats seek to complicate or even block his inauguration? Can he win approval for his appointees in the Senate? Can he clean house across the vast public agencies? How long will it take to recruit, train, and reinvigorate talented military leadership?

Democratic Response and Media Influence

How Democrats would respond to a Trump win is another question. Would they shift toward the center, as Bill Clinton did, or would their hatred of Trump fuel further radicalism? Would the public begin to question their trust in the legacy media, or has the information war inflicted permanent damage?

Business and Industry Impact

How would big business, which has shifted toward Democrats over the last 15 years, react to a Trump win? Would they recalibrate toward the GOP? Would the GOP even want many of the big businesses back? The GOP's new alignment with "Little Tech" is an exciting development, especially after being shut out of Silicon Valley for the last two decades.

The Censorship Industrial Complex

How would the Censorship Industrial Complex react to a Trump win? This could pose both a symbolic and operational blow to governmental, non-governmental, old media, and new media outlets determined to control facts and narratives. It could complicate their mission, funding, and organizational web. Would they persist in their "mis/disinformation" framing or devise a new strategy?

Health Issues and Foreign Relations

How Trump would integrate RFK, Jr. and his movement, especially on health issues, is another question. Trump has also promised to end the war between Russia and Ukraine. Achieving this could be difficult, given the Western foreign policy establishment's investment and Russia's territorial gains.

Artificial Intelligence and Unity

What if artificial intelligence launches a new productivity boom, enabled by an agenda of energy abundance, including a nuclear power revival? The economic tailwinds could reshape politics even more than we currently see. Can Trump, having run and won his last campaign, consolidate gains by reaching out and uniting the portions of the country willing to take an extended hand?

Bottom Line

The potential implications of a Trump win are vast and complex, ranging from economic and regulatory changes to shifts in foreign policy and the media landscape. What are your thoughts on these possibilities? Do you think a Trump win could reshape the political and economic landscape in the ways discussed? Share this article with your friends and join the conversation. Don't forget to sign up for the Daily Briefing, which is delivered every day at 6pm.