Republican Candidate Leads in Crucial Senate Race
In the pivotal race for the United States Senate in 2025, a new poll has revealed that the incumbent Democratic senator from Montana is trailing his Republican opponent by 8 points. This comes with less than two months remaining until Election Day, causing concern for Democrats hoping to retain control of the Senate.
AARP Poll Results
The AARP poll showed that 49% of Montana voters are backing Republican Tim Sheehy, while 41% are supporting incumbent Jon Tester. The Libertarian and Green Party candidates have received 4% and 1% support respectively. Sheehy seems to be benefiting from the popularity of former President Donald Trump in the state, who has a significant 56% to 41% lead. Trump had previously won the state by 16 points in 2020 and by 21 in 2016.
Senate Seats at Stake
In the 2024 elections, Democrats are defending 23 Senate seats, compared to just 11 for the Republicans. The GOP only needs to flip two seats to regain control of the Senate from the Democrats.
About Tim Sheehy
Tim Sheehy, a 37-year-old former Navy SEAL, is the founder and CEO of aerial firefighting company Bridger Aerospace. His support is strongest among voters over the age of 49, who favor him by 16 points. This demographic is also the most likely to vote, with 92% stating they are "extremely motivated" to cast a ballot. This is in contrast to 77% of voters aged 18 to 49. These results have emerged despite the Democrats spending more on the race, with $128 million compared to the GOP's $109 million.
Republican Strategists' View
The poll results have encouraged Republican strategists, who believe Sheehy may outperform their expectations. The NRSC Executive Director Jason Thielman stated that they have never seen numbers as strong as those from Tim Sheehy, even in the 2020 Senate race, which was won by double digits.
Impact on Senate Control
The new Montana poll has led the University of Virginia's Center for Politics to shift the status of the contest from "toss-up" to "leans Republican". They noted that history and recent trends are not in favor of Tester. The race is crucial for the Democrats' hopes of retaining control of the Senate in 2025. If Tester loses, the Democrats would need to win a currently Republican-held seat to win the Senate majority. Democrats are considering a stronger push to dislodge Texas Sen. Ted Cruz or Florida Sen. Rick Scott, whose races are both rated as "Likely Republican".
Ohio Race Still a Toss-Up
Following the shift in Montana's status, Ohio remains the only race still considered a toss-up by the Center. This race also has Democrats on the defensive, with incumbent Sherrod Brown facing Trump-backed candidate Bernie Moreno. The RealClearPolitics poll average has Moreno trailing by 3.6%.
Republican's Two-Seat Goal
In their aim to flip two seats, the Republicans appear to have one firmly in their grasp already. West Virginia's Democrat-turned-Republican Governor Jim Justice holds a 34-point lead in the race for the seat of retiring Democrat-turned-independent Sen. Joe Manchin.
Bottom Line
The upcoming Senate race in Montana is proving to be a significant turning point for both Democrats and Republicans. With Republicans seemingly poised to flip control of the Senate, the outcome of this race could have far-reaching implications for the political landscape. What are your thoughts on these developments? Do you think the Democrats can turn the tide in their favor? Share this article with your friends and discuss. Remember, you can sign up for the Daily Briefing, which is delivered every day at 6pm.
