Russia Implicitly Accepts China's Self-Declared Status As A "Near-Arctic State"
Last week, CNN reported that the China Coast Guard (CCG) claimed to have entered the Arctic Ocean for the first time, as it strengthens its security ties with Russia. However, neither the Russian nor American Coast Guards have confirmed the CCG's presence in the Arctic. The report from TASS on this matter only cited the CCG's statement on its WeChat page, making it uncertain whether the CCG actually entered the Arctic or stayed in the Bering Sea.
Perception and Reality
This distinction is critical because the belief that Sino-Russo Coast Guard drills were conducted in the Arctic could fuel Western efforts to contain Russia along that front. This perception also lends false credibility to the fabricated speculation that Russia is prepared to relinquish sovereignty rights in the Arctic to China after becoming excessively reliant on it over the past two years.
Russian Legislation Governing the Arctic
Several pieces of Russian legislation govern its Arctic maritime territory. A 2017 law prohibits shipping oil, natural gas, and coal along the Northern Sea Route (NSR) under a foreign flag. A 2018 law stipulates that these ships must be built in Russia. A 2022 law further requires all foreign warships to obtain prior permission to transit the NSR, and only one can do so at a time. These laws aim to ensure that Russia maximizes its profits from the NSR and adequately protects its sovereignty.
China's Presence in the Arctic
China poses no threat to Russian sovereignty, but unrestricted operation of its warships within Russia's territorial waters could increase the likelihood of an incident at sea with Western Arctic rivals, particularly the US. The same applies to the CCG, given the Arctic's distance from the Chinese coast. However, it is theoretically possible that the CCG could escort its icebreakers, which entered these waters for the first time over the summer, as they pave the way for commercial vessels.
China's Role in the Arctic
China's policy aims to secure it a seat at the table in multilateral discussions about the Arctic, through which it plans to expand trade with Europe via the NSR. This is a natural progression of its ambition to play a greater role in global governance, particularly in emerging frontiers like the Arctic, AI, and climate change. The CCG's drills with their Russian counterparts, even if only in the Bering Sea, reinforce its claim as a "near-Arctic state" due to its proximity to the Arctic.
Russia's Stance on China's Arctic Claim
While Russia implicitly supports this claim, it is unclear whether it is comfortable with China playing a role in Arctic governance. Russia is hesitant to internationalize this issue, fearing that it could lead to increased pressure to limit the sovereignty rights it has legislated in the Arctic. All countries aim to reduce trade costs, so it makes sense for China to want its own natural gas, oil, and coal ships to sail along the NSR rather than contracting Russia's ships for this task.
Strategic Partnership
This does not imply an impending issue in their strategic partnership over this matter. The only suggestion is that they have natural differences over this issue, which have been responsibly managed so far, and there is no reason to expect this to change. Sino-Russo cooperation in the Arctic is undoubtedly set to continue, including in the security dimension, although energy and logistical cooperation are expected to remain the main drivers of this trend.
Bottom Line
The Arctic region has become a significant point of interest for global powers, with Russia and China's activities in the region drawing attention. While the two nations have managed their differences responsibly thus far, the future of their strategic partnership in the Arctic remains to be seen. What are your thoughts on this matter? Feel free to share this article with your friends and discuss it. Remember, you can sign up for the Daily Briefing, which is available every day at 6pm.