Surge in AI Sparks Boom in Data Center Building and Power Demand

Powering-up America: A Nationwide Boom

The rise of artificial intelligence (AI) is causing a significant increase in the construction of data centers across the United States. This surge has brought the need to revamp the country's power grid into sharp focus, to accommodate the escalating demand for electricity. Earlier this month, it was highlighted that data centers located in Northern Virginia, also known as 'spy country,' are expected to require a power supply equivalent to that of a nuclear reactor.

Virginia's Exponential Increase in Power Demand

Turning the spotlight on Virginia, a group of Goldman analysts, spearheaded by Hongcen Wei, have discovered that the state's commercial power demand has surged exponentially, a trend not seen elsewhere in the country. Wei, referencing data from Goldman Sachs' equity analysts, informed clients that "US power consumption growth will accelerate sharply to an annual average 2.4% pace in 2022-2030, boosted by data centers, AI, and EVs."

Power Demand Set to Eclipse GDP

As previously discussed in articles such as "The Next AI Trade," power demand across the US is predicted to rise dramatically until 2030. This increase is due to the proliferation of data centers, electrification trends, and reshoring efforts. Wei highlighted that the growth in power demand is expected to surpass GDP in the latter half of the decade, a phenomenon not seen in thirty years.

Commercial Power Consumption in Virginia

Wei's analysis then delved into commercial power consumption in Virginia, which has soared in recent years as new data centers connect to the local grid. In contrast, commercial power demand in the rest of the US (referred to as ex-Virginia) remains sluggish but is anticipated to rise in the future. Wei noted, "The impact of data center developments is more difficult to observe directly within larger states, where more factors simultaneously impact power demand."

Impact of Data Centers on Power Consumption

Using the statistical "doppelganger" method, Wei's team discovered that data centers contributed to a 2.2 gigawatts increase in Virginia's power consumption in 2023. This figure is expected to grow, necessitating an increase in nuclear power or the implementation of small reactors near data centers.

AI and Data Centers: A Modest Boost in Power Demand

Wei concluded by stating, "First, AI and data centers are boosting US power demand as market participants expect, especially in regions like Virginia. But the overall magnitude of the boost remains modest, compared to both the current level of US total power demand and the expected level of data center power demand in later years of the decade."

Power Demand in the US and Europe

In a separate note, Goldman's Julia Masch showed that the GS US Power Up America index (GSENEPOW) and GS Electrification index (GSXEACDC) are rising, but the GS Power Up Europe index (GSPIPOWR) is lagging behind.

Why the High Power Demand?

For a clearer understanding of where power demand surges are anticipated, Visual Capitalist's Julie Peasley used data from Cushman & Wakefield to illustrate the top data center markets worldwide. The 'Powering Up America' theme is currently a hot topic.

Closing Thoughts

As AI continues to advance and data centers multiply, the demand for power is set to increase significantly. This trend, particularly noticeable in Virginia, brings into focus the need for a more robust and adaptable power grid. However, the overall impact on US power demand remains modest when compared to the current and projected levels of power demand. What are your thoughts on this surge in power demand due to AI and data centers? Do you think the US is prepared to meet this growing need? Share your thoughts and this article with your friends. Don't forget to sign up for the Daily Briefing, which is available every day at 6pm.