The Ineffectiveness of Political Solutions in Crisis Situations
Many people place their trust in political solutions to impending crises, believing that if we elect new leaders or replace existing policies, everything will be fixed and the crises will dissipate. However, there are compelling reasons for this faith, and equally powerful reasons why political solutions often fail during a crisis.
The faith in politics is nurtured by recency bias in eras of relatively low-level volatility. When the system is functioning smoothly, the incremental adaptations of politics are sufficient to resolve any arising issues. There are three main reasons for this.
Why Politics Tends to be Incremental
Firstly, politics is inherently incremental, and there are profound reasons for this aversion to radical reforms. All organisms are well-served by the innate conservatism of natural selection: if it isn't broken, don't fix it. If the current set of instructions - whether they be genetic, epigenetic, social, cultural, economic, or political - is working, then it makes sense to conserve what works and be cautious about adapting new instructions.
Secondly, everyone in a position of power or influence is committed to preserving the status quo that has rewarded them. Outsiders with no power or influence may be eager to overthrow the stale, sclerotic, do-nothing status quo, but insiders are self-selected defenders of the status quo, as it has served their interests well.
Lastly, a third source of incrementalism is the lack of consensus and the self-serving divisions in the Power Elite. There are ideological differences which lead to disagreements over policy and the auction of favors. This is the infamous "making sausage" of political wheeling and dealing. Incremental change is all that's possible when few of the participants are feeling any real pain that demands radical adaptations and the majority aren't feeling they're getting anything for supporting radical change.
The Status Quo and the Risk of Collapse
This is why we see tepid, baby-step, and ultimately ineffective policy adjustments as empires crumble into crisis. Insiders are loathe to relinquish power or admit that the status quo is incapable of dealing with the crises threatening to overwhelm the empire. As a result, collapse is the politically acceptable default.
The faith that "it will all work itself out if we leave it alone" is persuasive after decades of stability. This faith is catastrophically misplaced and will only become apparent after it's too late.
Historical Examples of Political Failure
Historical examples such as the fall of the Roman Empire and the decline of the Ming Dynasty illustrate the key dynamics of this delusional drift into disaster. The status quo, wedded to past success, guided by self-interest and risk aversion, impervious to any real change in its power structure, is beyond the reach of any leader or reform because it has reached the limits of its adaptability and thus of its ability to deal with crises.
The Public's Perception vs. The Ruling Elite's Perception
In the late stage of crises unmet with anything but magical incantations and reliance on past glories, the public's assessment of crises diverges from the complacent hubris of the ruling elite. A survey found that the top 1% has supreme confidence in their leadership and wisdom, while the general public has lost faith in the entire ruling elite.
Those who believe that new leadership and new policies will avert the crises just ahead will be disappointed. The ship's wheel is lashed tight by all the factors listed above: risk aversion, supreme confidence in either doing nothing or incremental adjustments, blindness to the novelty of the crises, reliance on past solutions, the dead hand of mummified ideologies, the shackles of self-interest, and last but not least, a hubristic confidence in the status quo and their own abilities to emerge victorious no matter what the crisis.
Bottom Line
In conclusion, we're on our own. The system has reached the limits of its adaptability. Everything else is entertainment. Rome was eternal, and so were the Ming Empire and the Soviet Union. Everything is forever until radical adaptations become too difficult and painful to bear.
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The Ineffectiveness of Political Solutions in Crisis Situations
Many people place their trust in political solutions to impending crises, believing that if we elect new leaders or replace existing policies, everything will be fixed and the crises will dissipate. However, there are compelling reasons for this faith, and equally powerful reasons why political solutions often fail during a crisis.
The faith in politics is nurtured by recency bias in eras of relatively low-level volatility. When the system is functioning smoothly, the incremental adaptations of politics are sufficient to resolve any arising issues. There are three main reasons for this.
