The Lull Before the Storm in Ukraine, Gaza, and Taiwan?

At present, there are three major areas of conflict, either active or dormant: the Ukrainian border, the regions surrounding Israel, and the strategic space between Taiwan and mainland China. Each of these conflicts has the potential not only to expand within their respective theaters but also to escalate to a point where the United States could be drawn in. Furthermore, all three involve nuclear powers. Russian voices frequently threaten the use of tactical nuclear weapons against Ukraine, and some even talk about deploying strategic nuclear bombs or missiles against its Western suppliers. This is particularly the case as the costs of Russian aggression increase and Putin's humiliation escalates. Both nuclear-armed Israel and near-nuclear Iran have launched attacks on each other's territories and have vowed to do so again. China, too, occasionally threatens Taiwan existentially. Its generals and spokespersons intermittently warn Japan and the U.S. of severe nuclear consequences should they intervene on Taiwan’s behalf.

Stalemates and Deadlocks

In all these conflict zones, there appears to be a state of stasis and deadlock. Israel is reportedly mired in Gaza as it attempts to neutralize 400 miles of underground command-and-control installations and munitions, locate and rescue surviving Israeli hostages, and eliminate Hamas leaders. The combined Russian and Ukrainian casualties, including the dead, wounded, and missing, may be nearing one million. There is debate among experts as to whether the current apparently successful Ukrainian counteroffensive towards Kursk inside Russia is merely a demonstration to gain diplomatic concessions, or whether it is designed to take and hold ground inside the Russian homeland. China has increased its harassment of Philippine forces and its rhetoric. It has also escalated its intrusions into Taiwanese airspace and waters while solidifying strategic partnerships with Russia and Iran. However, for now, China does not seem particularly eager to attack Taiwan.

Uncertainty Surrounding the United States

The confusion and strategic pauses in these conflicts are partly due to uncertainty surrounding the intentions and role of the United States. The country is currently embroiled in an unpredictable election year, compounded by ambiguity about who is actually in control of the country and who will be president after January 2025. While Russian and Ukrainian forces advance and retreat along their shared border, most experts privately believe that there is a quiet consensus about an eventual armistice to end the bloodshed. This will involve recognition of Russia’s control over the Donbas and Crimea, a demilitarized border, and an autonomous and heavily armed but non-NATO Ukraine.

The Middle East and China

Turning to the second conflict, Iran is now in a dangerous position of its own making. It has loudly promised Israel and boasted to the Muslim world that it will attack the Jewish homeland for a second time within a year. China, on the other hand, views strategy globally rather than regionally. It is happy to fuel the stalemate in Ukraine, as it believes that its traditional rival, Russia, is hurting the West by consuming its money, weapons, and attention.

Bottom Line

In conclusion, we are entering a very dangerous five-month period. The American people have judged Joe Biden as too enfeebled to be reelected and his own party has declared him too cognitively challenged to remain its nominee. This could suggest to foreign risk-takers that there might be a vacuum of rapid-response leadership at the White House. The unspoken corollary is that the American people and both their political parties are certain that, while Biden is incapable of continuing as a normally engaged president through the last half-year of his tenure, he will nevertheless inevitably do so. What do you think about this article? Share it with your friends and sign up for the Daily Briefing, which is every day at 6 pm.