The Importance of Washington's THAAD Deployment to Israel
The Pentagon has recently confirmed the dispatch of nearly 100 troops to Israel to operate one of its premier air defense systems, the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD), of which it only has seven in total. This development is in anticipation of Israel's expected retaliation to Iran's latest missile strike. This move by the US could signify several things:
1. Israel Is Likely Planning a Significant Move
Speculations are rife about Israel's plans, but it's likely that it's planning something significant that could provoke at least proportional retaliation from Iran. This is the reason why Israel requested the US to deploy one of its few THAADs to help defend it afterwards. THAAD specializes in intercepting ballistic missiles, indicating that Israel and the US expect Iran to respond similarly. However, THAAD only carries 48 interceptors, which could be overwhelmed if there's a saturation strike.
2. The Iron Dome Requires Additional Support
Many believe that Iran’s latest missile strike revealed the limitations of Israel’s renowned Iron Dome. The footage of the strike and Israel’s frantic reaction afterwards, including the detention of a journalist, suggest this. As such, the Iron Dome needs all the help it can get, which is why Israel requested the US to deploy THAAD.
3. The US Risks Mission Creep
Despite Biden's previous promise that “No US boots will be on the ground ” in the West Asian conflict zone, his administration approved this latest deployment, going back on his word. This move risks mission creep, as hawkish policymakers might now argue for scaling this deployment in pursuit of perceived national interests.
4. The THAAD Team Acts as an Escalation Tripwire
The THAAD team could act as an escalation tripwire. Any harm that might befall them while attempting to intercept Iran’s expected retaliation could serve as the pretext for the US to strike Iran and/or deploy more troops to the conflict zone. While this move is being presented as “defending Israel” and “deterring Iran”, policymakers are aware of the real stakes, yet they’re downplaying the dangers to avoid public outcry.
5. Israel-US Relations Remain Strong Despite Issues
The US’ THAAD deployment indicates that inter-state ties remain strong despite the well-known rivalry between Bibi and Biden. This could be attributed to the US’ permanent military, intelligence, and diplomatic bureaucracies still appreciating their perceived mutual geostrategic interests or to the power of the Israel lobby.
Bottom Line
The US’ THAAD deployment to Israel is a concerning development because it suggests that something significant is looming, and there’s now a heightened chance that the US will become directly involved. Whether its role remains defensive or evolves into an offensive one remains to be seen, but this team of nearly 100 operators essentially serves as an escalation tripwire. Hawkish policymakers want a larger war, and it’ll take self-restraint on Iran’s side and a little bit of luck to avoid that worst-case scenario. What are your thoughts on this matter? Share this article with your friends and let us know your views. Remember, you can sign up for the Daily Briefing which is everyday at 6pm.
