Trump Gains Ground in Crucial States

As of October 14, 2024, data compiled by RealClear Polling shows that Republican candidate Donald Trump has made significant strides in key battleground states in the run-up to the U.S. presidential election in November. The Democratic contender, Kamala Harris, was recently ahead of her opponent by a mere 0.3 percentage points in the state of Wisconsin. According to Katharina Buchholz from Statista, around a month ago, both Harris and Trump were leading in three battleground states each, while another state was considered a tie. At present, Trump's largest lead is in Arizona, where he is ahead by 1.1 percentage points. His leads in other states such as Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania are considerably smaller. In this scenario, Harris's lead in Wisconsin would translate into 10 electoral votes, while Trump would gather 83.

Expected Electoral Votes in the 2024 Election

The source also estimates the number of electoral votes in the 2024 election that are likely to come from states that usually vote Democratic or Republican, and those that are likely or leaning towards voting Democratic or Republican. In this case, Harris is projected to have 215 votes (including 76 likely/leaning ones), while Trump is expected to have 219 votes (126 likely/leaning). To reach a majority in the electoral college, Harris would need to secure slightly more votes from the battleground states. This calculation includes an additional 10 votes from Minnesota and one from Nebraska's second district.

Prediction Markets' Stance

However, prediction markets seem to have a clearer idea of who they think will emerge victorious. But, it's important to note that just as polls can be manipulated, the lower liquidity in prediction markets makes them susceptible to influence from billionaires. Despite this, Trump's recent surge is widespread. If a certain 'world's richest man' was manipulating the market, one might wonder why individuals like Soros and his associates wouldn't counteract this influence.

Bottom Line

The race for the presidency is heating up, with both candidates making significant strides in key battleground states. The prediction markets seem to have a clearer idea of the potential winner, but the possibility of manipulation cannot be ignored. What are your thoughts on these developments? Do you agree with the prediction markets or do you believe the polls provide a more accurate picture? Share your thoughts and this article with your friends. Remember, you can also sign up for the Daily Briefing, which is delivered every day at 6pm.