Trump Leads in Recent Polls

Discussion on New Polls and Pollster Accuracy

New polls, pollster accuracy, polling bias, and the economy are currently under discussion. A question from a reader about Nate Silver is also being considered. Recent data indicates a negative outlook for Kamala Harris. Three high-quality national polls show Donald Trump leading, which is a challenging situation for Harris considering the Democrats' Electoral College disadvantage. Harris's edge in the national polling average has dropped to 1.7 points. Although national polls don't significantly influence the model, the race remains essentially a toss-up.

Fox News Poll

According to a recent Fox News national survey, former President Trump is leading Vice President Kamala Harris in the presidential race by 2 points (50%-48%). This is a reversal from last month when Harris had a slight advantage. However, Harris is leading by 6 points among voters from the seven key battleground states and is tied at 49% with Trump among voters in close counties. Trump's advantage comes from a larger share in counties he won by more than 10 points in 2020. This raises the question of whether the Democrat could win the Electoral College while losing the national popular vote, as happened in 2000 and 2016 with the GOP candidate.

AtlasIntel National Poll

The AtlasIntel National Poll shows Trump leading with 50.7%, followed by Harris with 47.6%, and others/undecided at 1.7%.

TIPP Tracking Poll Day 7

In the third of three high-quality polls, TIPP Insights reports that former President Donald Trump has overtaken Vice President Kamala Harris and now enjoys a two-point lead. The data from the seventh release of the 23-day TIPP tracking poll shows a change in momentum. TIPP, recognized by The Washington Post in 2020 as the most accurate national presidential poll, continues to provide the latest insights on the race.

2020 Accuracy

Nate Silver commented on Pollster Accuracy in March 2021, stating that the best-performing pollster was AtlasIntel, followed by Trafalgar. Despite some inaccuracies, they were close on the margins, which is a better metric. The Washington Post 2020 Accuracy Report is available for reference.

Polling Error in 2020

The Hungarian Conservative notes that Atlas Intel was the most accurate pollster nationally in the United States in the last two election cycles. In 2020, the public opinion research firm overestimated Biden by 0.2 points and overestimated the GOP by 0.3 points in the generic Congressional ballot in 2022. In both cycles, they got the final results within a few tenths of a point.

Reader Comments

While accuracy in 2020 does not imply accuracy in 2022, it does explain why many readers distrust Nate Silver. One reader asked why Silver is frequently referred to. The primary reason is that Silver explains in detail what he is doing and why, allowing everyone to make their own adjustments.

Pennsylvania Polls

AtlasIntel had a significant influence on the Pennsylvania polls due to its large sample size of 2,048 likely voters. One reader suggested that Silver should not weight the polls but average them. However, in general, the larger the sample, the more accurate the poll.

Returning to TIPP Insights

A growing sense of economic dissatisfaction is evident. The TIPP Tracking Poll shows that 53% of Americans feel worse off now compared to their situation pre-COVID. Democrats are the most optimistic, with 51% saying they're better off, but 68% of Republicans report being worse off. Independents largely mirror the national mood, with 55% feeling the pain. This dissatisfaction is a headwind for Harris, which Trump could exploit.

Trump's Polling Momentum Is Real

Trump's polling momentum is real, with under three weeks to go. Momentum was there, and obvious, but Silver chose not to see it. For 67 percent of the nation (the asset holders and the homeowners), the economy has been good to very good, offsetting inflation. However, for renters and struggling homeowners fed up with property insurance, food, and other inflation, the economy borders on miserable. This group includes young voters, blacks, and those without a college education. These traditional Democrat votes are breaking hard for Trump.

Bottom Line

These recent polls suggest a shift in favor of Trump, particularly among groups that traditionally vote Democrat. The economic dissatisfaction felt by renters, young voters, and blacks seems to be influencing their voting decisions. It's interesting to see how these dynamics are playing out in the polls. What are your thoughts on these findings? Do you think they accurately reflect the current political climate? Share this article with your friends and let's continue the discussion. Remember, you can sign up for the Daily Briefing, which is available every day at 6pm.