Ukraine's Kursk Incursion Continues into Third Month

Ukraine's Kursk Incursion: An Overview

The cross-border incursion into Kursk by Ukraine, which has resulted in the occupation of numerous towns and settlements in the Russian southern border region, has now entered its third month. The incursion, which began on August 6th, took both the Kremlin leadership and many Western leaders by surprise. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a Washington, DC-based think tank, estimates that the Ukrainian army has managed to maintain control over approximately 300 square miles of territory at this point.

Defending the Border Region

The border region was reportedly poorly defended, and Moscow took a considerable amount of time to send reinforcements to start pushing the Ukrainians back. A Ukrainian battalion commander inside Kursk shared the latest battlefield situation with CNN, stating that "Russian advances are mostly happening on the flanks of our foothold." He added that while Russian forces continue to attempt to advance, their gains are incremental, and Ukrainian forces also counterattack and push them back.

Russian and Ukrainian Forces

While the exact number of Ukrainian troops committed to holding the region remains unclear, international reports estimate that Russia has deployed approximately 40,000 of its own forces to reclaim the region. Russia has utilized both conscripts and reservists, but has not seemed to divert large numbers from front line Ukraine positions in Donetsk. Ukraine's main base of operations within Russia is the town of Sudzha, and it is believed that the Veseloe village is its next target for takeover.

Ukraine's Operation Goals

One of the primary objectives of Ukraine's operation was to force Russia to divert a significant portion of its forces from Eastern Ukraine to defend its southern Russian territory. Last month, Politico reported that several of Ukraine’s top military commanders were strongly against President Volodymyr Zelensky's risky decision to invade Kursk. Gen. Valery Zaluzhny, the former commander-in-chief and current UK ambassador, opposed the offensive due to the lack of a clear second step once the border was breached.

Impact on Russia

Despite the opposition, the ability of Ukrainian troops to hold Russian territory for two full months, and now a third, has proven to be somewhat of a public embarrassment for President Putin and the Russian military. Western officials have stated that Putin is attempting to downplay the Kursk situation. Mark Galeotti, a senior associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), has described how the Kursk operation has, over time, become normalized.

Bottom Line

The ongoing incursion into Kursk by Ukraine is a significant event that has implications for both Ukraine and Russia, as well as the international community. The ability of Ukrainian forces to hold onto Russian territory for an extended period of time has raised questions about Russia's military capabilities and strategic planning. What are your thoughts on this ongoing situation? Do you think Ukraine's incursion into Kursk was a wise move? Share your thoughts and this article with your friends. Remember, you can sign up for the Daily Briefing, which is delivered every day at 6pm.