Ukraine Acknowledges Russian Progress in Kursk as Sumy Evacuation Begins

For those who have been closely following the war maps and geo-location data of troop positions, Ukraine's unsuccessful offensive in Kursk is not unexpected. Their forces came to a standstill just a few weeks after their initial push into the territory, and ever since, the Russians have been reclaiming land. However, those who rely solely on mainstream news sources might be taken aback by the recapture of Kursk.

Russian Troops Advance

Russian troops have made considerable progress from the western flank of Ukrainian positions, and there are reports of a potential encirclement of Ukrainian troops. The Telegraph, typically a platform for pro-Ukraine propaganda, acknowledges that sources from both sides have confirmed the Russian breakthrough. This happened during the most intense fighting on Russian territory since Ukraine initiated its cross-border incursion in August.

Ukrainian Military Blogger's Insight

DeepState, a Ukrainian military blogger, expressed the risk of Russian forces encircling Ukrainian forces. However, they later stated that the front lines in Kursk were “difficult but under control”. They also mentioned that “The enemy pushed through the left flank of the Kursk grouping of Ukrainian defense forces,” and warned of impending chaos due to repeated mistakes. This blogger, like many others in this conflict, likely has connections to government and military officials who provide them with frontline information. It's worth noting that DeepState has refrained from updating his war maps to show significant Russian gains in Kursk for several weeks. This is likely due to pressure from Kyiv officials to maintain an appearance of success in Kursk. His admission of these gains now suggests that Ukraine's situation is critical.

Russian Military Bloggers' Input

According to Russian military bloggers, marines from the Pacific Fleet’s 155th Guards Brigade have been involved in fighting in the Glushkovsky district of Kursk, where most Ukrainian forces are believed to have been overrun.

Concerns of Encirclement

The fear of potential encirclement of Ukrainian troops in Kursk arises only days after US officials asserted they could hold the ground for months.

Ukraine's Kursk Operation: A Strategic Puzzle

The strategic reasoning behind Ukraine's Kursk operation remains unclear. Vladimir Zelensky asserts the attack was intended to divert Russian troops from the eastern front to slow their relentless advance on Ukraine's defensive positions. Many of these towns and their surrounding defenses have been held since 2014. The speed at which Russia is capturing these positions suggests that Ukraine is facing significant challenges, primarily a lack of manpower.

Implications of the Kursk Offensive

If the objective was indeed to distract the Russians from the east, then the Kursk offensive achieved nothing. The Kremlin actually intensified their forces and attacks in the region following the Kursk incident. John Foreman, a former British military attaché in both Moscow and Kyiv, states, “Russian progress actually picked up after Kursk...Politically, the Kursk offensive didn’t change much in Washington DC or Europe. I’m still unconvinced of its strategic merit.”

Evacuation of Sumy Oblast

Kyiv's recent order for a mandatory evacuation of over 37,000 civilians from the Sumy Oblast region, which borders Kursk, further indicates that the area is on the verge of being retaken by Russia. It seems that the Kursk incursion served more as fodder for western media hype than as a strategic move.

Bottom Line

The conflict between Ukraine and Russia continues to evolve, with recent developments indicating a shift in power. The strategic purpose behind Ukraine's Kursk operation remains unclear, and the recent evacuation order for Sumy Oblast suggests a serious situation on the ground. What are your thoughts on these developments? Feel free to share this article with your friends and engage in the conversation. Don't forget to sign up for the Daily Briefing, available every day at 6pm.