Ukraine's Manpower Dilemma: Zelensky's Sole "Victory Plan" Relies on NATO Troops

Ukraine's proposed "victory plan", which was recently presented to NATO officials and the two candidates for the 2024 US presidential election, has been met with widespread criticism. The main reason for this is that it fails to address the primary hurdle that Ukraine faces in halting Russia's consistent strategic progress: manpower, a resource that Ukraine currently lacks.

The Manpower Issue

While the problem is not explicitly stated, it is suggested by various officials who have insider knowledge of the war. US politicians, including Democrats and Neocons, have been urging Ukraine to lower the conscription age to 18-24 year old men, a move the country has been trying to resist. The concern is that if Ukraine consents to this, there will be a shortage of men to start families and replenish the population once the war concludes.

Foreign Mercenary Presence and Its Impact

The peak of Ukraine's successful resistance against Russian forces in 2022 coincided with the highest level of foreign mercenary presence in the region. Tens of thousands of highly skilled contract soldiers from the US and Europe assisted Ukrainians in countering the maneuver warfare tactics of the Russians. However, when Russia switched to attrition warfare, the influx of mercenaries dwindled. Mainstream media proposes that the decline in foreign fighters is due to the loss of the war's "romance". However, it's more likely that the decrease is because western soldiers are seldom trained to fight under attrition warfare conditions, making the risk of death significantly higher. Consequently, Ukraine no longer has a reserve of foreign fighters to rely on, and their recruitment efforts are yielding minimal results.

Conscription and Kidnapping

Young men are either conscripted or, in some cases, kidnapped by military police. They are then transported to training centers and deployed to the front lines within a few weeks. Manpower is crucial in warfare, and it is the one thing that Ukraine has not received from NATO governments.

Zelensky's Victory Plan

Upon close examination of Zelensky's victory plan, it appears as though someone may have promised him a new supply of NATO troops. In fact, Zelensky's only plan seems to be immediate NATO membership, which, according to the NATO treaty, would necessitate the deployment of NATO troops to Ukraine for mutual defense. In essence, the Ukrainian plan could potentially trigger World War III. Key features of the plan include a formal invitation to join NATO, the lifting of bans on long-range strikes with Western-supplied weapons deep into Russia, a refusal to trade Ukraine’s territories and sovereignty, and the continuation of the incursion into Russia's western Kursk region.

Russia's Stance and Ukraine's Dilemma

Russia is unlikely to willingly surrender their territorial gains in the Donbas, particularly when their troop levels are at an all-time high and they are capturing towns at the fastest rate since the war's onset. The refusal to negotiate on territory makes peace unattainable and necessitates a substantial increase in troop strength for Kyiv to have any hope of launching a new offensive. Reports suggest that Ukraine is losing its gains in the Kursk region, with rumors of a full retreat now circulating. This claim appears to be substantiated by Ukraine's evacuation of civilians from the Sumy region, which is just across the border from Kursk. Once again, the manpower simply doesn't exist to make any of Zelensky's objectives achievable.

Public Opinion

The real question is, is Ukraine worth it? According to surveys in the US and Europe, the majority of the public says "no." They do not support sending troops to Ukraine, nor do they want to risk World War III with Russia. Given this fact, it would be prudent for Zelensky and his NATO supporters to abandon any ideas of a victory plan and start contemplating the merits of a peace plan.

Bottom Line

The situation in Ukraine is complex and fraught with challenges. The country's lack of manpower is a significant obstacle to its efforts to halt Russia's strategic advances. Zelensky's victory plan, which relies heavily on NATO troops, has been met with criticism and skepticism. The public's reluctance to support military intervention or risk a global conflict further complicates matters. It raises the question: Is it time to consider a peace plan instead? What are your thoughts on this issue? Share this article with your friends and let us know your views. Remember, you can sign up for the Daily Briefing, which is available every day at 6pm.