Understanding the Arctic Aspect of the Russian-Indian Strategic Partnership

The Russian-Indian joint working group on the Northern Sea Route (NSR) through the Arctic Ocean, a potentially significant global trade route, recently conducted its inaugural meeting in Delhi. This group was established as a result of nine agreements signed by Indian Prime Minister Modi and Putin during a trip to Moscow, aimed at broadening cooperation in various sectors. Here are the factors driving the Arctic aspect of their longstanding strategic partnership:

1. India's Anticipated Use of the NSR for Trade with Europe

The ongoing Israeli-Resistance War has indefinitely halted work on the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) and led to a blockade of the Red Sea by the Houthis. This has increased the cost of Indo-European trade and underscored its strategic insecurity. Consequently, India is likely to use the NSR more frequently as a less risky alternative to the Red Sea route once it reopens.

2. Indian Shipyards' Capacity to Construct Russian Icebreakers

According to The Maritime Executive, Russia's interest in having India construct four non-nuclear icebreakers stems from the fact that Indian shipyards have the capacity that rivals in China, South Korea, and Japan will not have until at least 2028. European shipyards are unable to fulfill such contracts due to sanctions. Given India's plans to build over 1,000 ships in the next decade, it makes sense for Russia to invest some of its substantial rupee reserves in this industry, with a view towards developing the NSR.

3. India's Surplus of Sailors for NSR Navigation Training

The recent meeting also discussed the training of Indian sailors, the third largest group globally, for navigating the NSR. Russian laws from 2017 and 2018 prohibit the shipping of oil, natural gas, and coal along this route under a foreign flag and mandate that these ships must be built in Russia. Given Russia's declining population, experienced Indian sailors could be contracted to help navigate these ships, rather than relying on Central Asian migrants.

4. Potential Indian Investment in Russian Arctic Energy

Russia's Arctic LNG 2 project, which a Chinese company withdrew from over the summer, could potentially attract Indian investment under certain conditions. India's Oil Secretary stated last month that his country would not participate due to the sanctions, but an exemption might be possible if India helps broker an end to the Ukrainian Conflict. Kiev reportedly prefers India to play this role over China, and if successful, the West might reward India to decrease China's influence in the Arctic.

5. India's Crucial Role in the Global Balance of Influence

Lastly, Russia depends on India to avoid an overreliance on China. Despite Western pressure on India to distance itself from Russia, the West is slowly recognizing this role. As such, it has not imposed maximum sanctions against India for their reported covert tech trade. Thus, increasing Indian influence in the Arctic serves as a counterweight to China's, aligning with both Russian and Western interests. Russian-Indian collaboration in the Arctic holds great promise for the reasons listed, although it will not reach its full potential until India is willing to defy Western sanctions on the Arctic LNG II project. Given India's pivotal role in the global balance of influence, it and the West should engage in discreet discussions on potential exemptions, which would then enable India to compete more effectively with China in the Arctic.

Bottom Line

The Arctic aspect of the Russian-Indian strategic partnership holds significant potential, particularly in terms of global trade and balance of power. However, the full realization of this potential is contingent on India's willingness to defy Western sanctions and the West's recognition of India's crucial role in global affairs. What are your thoughts on this matter? Do you think India and the West should engage in discreet talks to negotiate an exemption? Share this article with your friends and let us know your thoughts. Don't forget to sign up for the Daily Briefing, which is delivered every day at 6pm.