U.S. and Iran: A Call for Cooperation
According to a recent statement by the Israeli newspaper Haaretz, Israel is ensnaring both the U.S. and Iran. If this is indeed the case, it may be time for the U.S. and Iran to collaborate in order to escape this trap.
The Rising Tensions
The recent exchange of fire between Israel and Iran has brought the region to the brink of further violence and instability. However, it is unclear who stands to gain from this chaos. In the past, Arab Gulf states may have welcomed the distraction of Iran battling an American ally, but this is likely no longer the case. Diplomatic relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia were rekindled in 2023 thanks to a deal brokered by China. Furthermore, last week, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) members declared their neutrality in the ongoing Iran-Israel conflict.
Who Benefits?
With the Arab Gulf states out of the equation, the remaining players are the U.S., Israel, and defense contractors. Defense contractors will simply follow orders, while Israel seems determined to escalate the situation, partly to restore deterrence against Iran and partly to keep Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu out of jail. This leaves the U.S. with the task of restoring stability, as only Netanyahu stands to gain from the region's fragmentation.
Netanyahu's Tactics
Netanyahu's recent comments to the Iranian people, hinting at an impending freedom for Iran, suggest a desire for regime change in Tehran. This should serve as a warning to Washington to avoid any association with a coup in Tehran, as it has made this mistake before with lasting consequences.
Historical Context
In 1953, the American Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) and Britain’s MI-6 sponsored a coup to depose Iran’s Prime Minister Mohammad Mosaddegh. The Americans installed Mohammad Reza Pahlavi as the Shah, who later contributed to the successful 1979 Iranian Revolution and the establishment of an absolutist theocracy.
Nuclear Threat
Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has declared that nuclear weapons are un-Islamic, but a revised fatwa could change this stance if Israel continues to escalate tensions and push for regime change.
The Role of the U.S.
If the U.S. decides to cooperate with Iran to reduce tensions, it will likely be pressured to restart the nuclear deal with Tehran. However, this would require crafting a new arrangement, as Iran has continued with nuclear research and development after Washington abandoned its commitments to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action in 2018.
The Bigger Picture
If the U.S. can begin dialogue with Iran and prevent Israeli escalation, it will need to accept a greater role for Russia and China in the region. Moreover, the U.S. must also consider whether its forces are ready and able to attack Iran, given the depletion of U.S. inventories due to ammunition transfers to Ukraine and Israel and attacks on Houthi forces in Yemen.
Historical Lessons
The U.S. should remember the lessons of 1980, when Iraq invaded Iran with extensive U.S. support. The invasion fostered a sense of national unity and solidarity among Iranians, helping to consolidate the power of the clerical leadership in Iran.
Public Opinion
A recent poll by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs found that the majority of Americans oppose using U.S. troops to defend Israel. After two decades of war, inflation, and natural disasters, Americans may prefer to focus on domestic issues.
Economic Considerations
Israel's intentions for Iran are also influenced by economic factors. Iran has demonstrated proficiency in nuclear technology and missile development, and it is crucial for Israel's post-war economic recovery that Iran remains isolated and unable to compete economically.
Urgent Need for Dialogue
It is crucial for both Washington and Tehran to put aside their differences and work together to prevent a war that, according to former Israeli prime minister Ehud Olmert, would only serve Netanyahu's personal interests.
Bottom Line
This situation underscores the importance of international cooperation and dialogue in resolving conflicts. The potential for further violence and instability in the region is a concern for all parties involved. The question remains, can the U.S. and Iran find common ground and work together to avert a larger conflict? What are your thoughts on this issue? Feel free to share this article with your friends and discuss it. Don't forget to sign up for the Daily Briefing, which is available every day at 6pm.
