Voters' Perception of 2024 Presidential Candidates
A recent survey has shown that Vice President Kamala Harris holds a strong advantage over former President Donald Trump in U.S. voter perceptions of likability. Harris also leads in terms of perceived strong moral character and honesty. However, Trump is seen as a stronger and more decisive leader, and more capable of getting things done.
Despite these distinctions, neither candidate has a clear advantage in voters' beliefs regarding other presidential competencies. These include managing the government effectively, displaying good judgment in a crisis, having a vision for the country’s future, caring about the needs of people, and being someone people would be proud to have as president.
Survey Findings
The findings are based on a Gallup survey conducted between Sept. 16-28. Perceptions of Trump are similar to what Gallup found in 2020, with a slight increase in voters' belief in his ability to display good judgment in a crisis.
Trump’s rating for honesty is higher now than his 38% rating in 2016 when he won the election. However, in 2020, despite an improved honesty score, Trump trailed Joe Biden by 11 points on this character dimension.
Summary Assessments
Harris leads Trump by 51% to 45% on a question that asks whether each candidate has “the personality and leadership qualities a president should have.” However, Trump does better on the “strong and decisive leader” item. On the issues, the two are tied in Americans’ views, with about half saying they agree with each candidate.
Partisan Views
Most partisans believe their own candidate possesses the positive characteristics tested in the poll. However, Democrats are more convinced than Republicans about certain ones. Independents’ views are similar to those of all voters nationally on most of the qualities.
Effective Campaigns
While Trump is tied with Harris in perceptions of being able to manage the federal government, he trails her by 10 points in ratings of how they are running their campaigns. The timing of the poll, conducted soon after the presidential debate, could have influenced this result.
Political Extremism
The candidates appear to be at a draw in terms of painting each other as extremist. Close to half of voters say Trump’s political views are “too conservative,” while a statistically equivalent 51% call Harris “too liberal.”
Satisfaction with Candidates
More Democrats, including independents who lean Democratic, say they are generally pleased with Harris as their party’s presidential nominee than Republicans and Republican leaners say they are pleased with Trump as theirs.
Age of Candidates
The age of the candidates was a potential campaign liability for the Democrats earlier this year, when two-thirds of Americans thought the 81-year-old Biden was too old to be president. However, despite Trump now being the older candidate, the percentage saying he’s too old hasn’t changed much.
Comparison with Biden
In addition to Democrats viewing her far more favorably as a candidate and ideologically than they did Biden, Harris is performing significantly better nationally on two other metrics than Biden was before he withdrew from the race.
Bottom Line
Trump and Harris appear to be evenly matched overall, with neither having clear advantages in voters’ ratings of their images, perceptions of their ideology, agreement on issues, ratings for how they are conducting their campaigns, or perceptions that one or the other is too old. If the race comes down to which candidate can get better results in the Oval Office, Trump may have the upper hand. However, if voters perceive leadership more holistically, factoring in their perceptions of each candidate’s personality and character, Harris may have the edge. What are your thoughts on this matter? Share this article with your friends and let's hear their opinions too. And don't forget to sign up for the Daily Briefing, which is every day at 6pm.
